The Finnish Immigration Service updated its estimates of application numbers for 2025 and 2026 in June 2025.
In its updated estimate, the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland is lower than previously anticipated for this year and the next year. A total of 771 first asylum applications were submitted in Finland between January and May of 2025. This was 26% less than at the same time in 2024.
The Finnish Immigration Service estimates that, in 2025 and 2026, a total of 1,500–2,500 first asylum applications will be submitted per year.
“The estimate is lower than the previous one, as there are no factors on the horizon for the current and next year that could be expected to increase the number of applications compared to the current situation. The asylum seeker situation in the EU, which is calmer than last year, along with internal border controls in the Schengen area, is likely to keep the number of asylum seekers arriving in Finland moderate”, says Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Development of the Finnish Immigration Service.
This year, the number of asylum seekers in the EU has remained lower than last year. However, the overall number of asylum applications lodged in the region remains high.
Economic and employment situation reflected in number of work-based residence permit applications
According to an estimate by the Finnish Immigration Service, the number of applications for a first work-based residence permit will be lower this year than in previous years. A total of 5,327 applications for a first work-based residence permit were submitted from January to May 2025, which is approximately 23% less than during the corresponding period last year. The number of applications in 2025 is estimated to be 11,000.
However, the trend in residence permit applications is expected to respond to positive economic signals next year, and the application numbers are estimated to increase again.
Nevertheless, the anticipation of trends in work-based immigration is associated with factors of uncertainty.
“The trend in the number of residence permit applications primarily depends on economic developments. Currently, the unpredictability of international trade and tariff policy particularly poses a significant challenge to producing estimates. We estimate that the expected positive economic development will be reflected especially in the residence permit applications of service and construction workers in the coming years,” Hirvelä says.
Need for temporary protection continues, number of students still increasing
A total of 3,310 applications for temporary protection were submitted from January to May 2025, which is approximately 19% less than in 2024. Applications were submitted steadily during the first half of the year, with the exception of May, when Ukrainians started arriving in Finland for seasonal work.
The number of applicants applying for a residence permit for studies will continue to remain high. A total of 4,703 residence permit applications were submitted on the basis of studies from January to May 2025, which is 3% more than in the corresponding period last year. An exceptionally high number of applications was submitted in January, after which the monthly number of applications returned to the 2024 level.
The Finnish Immigration Service’s foresight network is an expert group that meets three times a year and whose task is to prepare quantitative and qualitative forecasts about migration to Finland and asylum seekers arriving in Finland.
Media inquiries
- Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Development, email: [email protected], tel. +358295 433037 (Finnish Immigration Service’s telephone number for media representatives)
- Website: Forecasts | Finnish Immigration Service
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