Germany’s reinstatement of border controls with its nine neighbors marks an exceptional yet legal measure in the free-circulation Schengen area, but runs the risk of creating a chain reaction. While German authorities have been clear they will wait until the European Union’s external borders are strengthened before loosening these temporary restrictions, it remains to be seen if there is an off-ramp in sight or if what is billed as a six-month measure will harden into something more permanent and possibly be replicated by more EU Member States.
The government last week introduced these measures in a bid for more effective apprehension and return of migrants arriving without authorization, following a series of attacks allegedly perpetrated by asylum seekers or refugees—several of whom had return orders to other EU countries. These attacks, most recently at a festival in Solingen in late August, have pressured the German government to demonstrate it is addressing increasing public concerns about integration, security, and the inability to enforce return decisions against failed asylum seekers.
While border checks were already in place on Germany’s borders with Poland, Czechia, and Austria, under the new measures, mobile border police units have been deployed to do spot checks of travellers and vehicles at Germany’s EU borders. The measures also aim to expedite Dublin asylum procedures for individuals apprehended at Germany’s borders, with detention capacity to be expanded there. Under Dublin rules, asylum seekers without family ties or authorization to be in Germany are to be transferred to the country of first entry in the European Union to have their asylum claim processed. The government coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also moved to narrow benefits for Dublin cases—to “bed, bread, soap”—to encourage asylum seekers to leave Germany. In turn, the government has been working to increase returns outside the European Union, including to places such as Afghanistan. The special commissioner for migration agreements has even suggested Germany should create its own version of the discarded UK- Rwanda deal, and send asylum seekers to have their applications processed in Africa.
Migration Management and Electoral Imperatives
Ahead of national elections next year, German officials are scrambling to show they have not lost control over migration and are addressing the public’s concerns regarding the rising number of arrivals. The poor performance of the ruling coalition parties and record support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in several regional elections in September have engendered political panic in Berlin.
Germany has been heavily affected by recent refugee crises and now stands as the world’s third largest refugee-hosting country. Over just two years, Germany granted temporary protection to 1.2 million Ukrainians. The country also receives, by far, the highest number of asylum applications in the European Union, accounting for nearly one-third (334,000) of the claims filed in 2023. And like other Member States, Germany is grappling with a severe housing crisis and strained public services, amid unprecedented pressure on public finances. Regional policymakers have become increasingly vocal about the migration-related fiscal and service provision challenges. The new border restrictions reflect this growing sense that Germany has shouldered a disproportional share of the responsibility of hosting refugees within Europe, without much backup from fellow Member States.
And yet, Germany has consistently been one of the champions of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), making substantial investments in developing reception infrastructure, recruiting and training asylum caseworkers, piloting new digital tools, and spearheading integration innovations.
A New Paradigm?
The new border measures represent a shift towards a go-it-alone approach that could pose a serious threat to Schengen, the free movement zone to which Germany and 28 other European countries belong. The proposals by the opposition Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and AfD parties, meanwhile, go even further and could put the CEAS at risk, should the next national election in 2025 prove favorable for them. While a growing number of Member States are embracing concepts and measures that, until recently, were dismissed as conflicting with European values, recent German developments could further reinforce this trend and there is a genuine risk that more extreme proposals will become reality.
Beyond the symbolic and political implications, the latest German border controls are unlikely at a pragmatic level to have the impact the government so desperately desires. While border controls introduced in eastern Germany in 2023 have reportedly led to 30,000 people being refused entry, in the medium term, there is evidence that such measures may cause migrants to rely to a greater extent on smuggling networks, empowering organized crime and complicating security screenings. Border checks also risk annoying Germany’s neighbors, whose cooperation it relies upon to complete Dublin returns.
What, Then, Is the Alternative?
First, the European Commission president and other European leaders must clearly convey their support for Germany. The Polish, Austrian, Greek, and other governments affected by German border controls were quick to complain about the economic costs that obstruction to the free movement of goods in the Schengen zone would have. But they remained silent on the role that their policies of deterrence and scaling down investment in reception and asylum capacity have had on arrivals in Germany.
Germany is surrounded by neighbors who have gone out of their way to discourage asylum seekers from seeking a haven in their territory: Denmark has moved toward minimal standards for protection and externalization, the Netherlands has repeatedly called to close the border and halt asylum claims, and Belgium has declared that it would stop accommodating single male asylum seekers. These unilateral actions have led to Germany standing increasingly alone in its efforts to uphold the international protection regime. This needs to be reversed, or else the entire architecture of the CEAS could collapse, as could the founding principles of the Schengen Area.
Statements of support must, however, be backed up with concrete action or they risk being seen as “thoughts and prayers” for public consumption that will have little tangible impact once the TV cameras have moved on. In the medium term, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum could be a game changer for Germany. The pact’s constellation of measures on border management, screening, and (asylum and return) border procedures aim to better manage flows to the bloc by ensuring asylum procedures are conducted, where possible, at EU external borders. These measures should reduce entry of those with no legitimate reason to do so, ensure swift return following shorter border procedures, and avoid onward migration to other Member States. This would reduce the arrival of and responsibilities for Dublin cases on German territory (and other countries along intra-EU migration or refugee routes). Similarly, the pact’s solidarity ingredients, such as the annual European Commission exercise to forecast possible pressure on national asylum systems, secure support where needed, and ensure relocation could benefit Germany if it continues to find itself under greater pressure than its peers.
The Need for Solutions Today
Yet the pact will only be implemented in June 2026, and its measures will require time to bear fruit, with any impact coming far too late for the current German government and a restive German public. More urgent and timely action is needed to address Germany’s immediate concerns. Tackling the large stock of Dublin applicants clogging asylum systems (and reception capacity) must be a first priority. A few days ago, the German government announced it would convene a Dublin task force with representatives of federal and länder governments to ensure that more Dublin cases are returned to the responsible EU Member States. An EU Agency for Asylum (EUAA) operational support plan for Germany already in June had identified the lack of staff as one of the culprits for Germany’s problems with the Dublin system. This plan will need a few months to take effect, but it will play an important role by injecting much-needed staff capacity.
There is more that could be done, however. Germany could call upon the European Union and a selection of Member States to set up a Dublin task force at the EU level that identifies and tackles specific interstate problems while also seeking to obtain case resolution for the large stock of asylum seekers deemed to be the responsibility of another EU country across the bloc—the so-called Dublin cases. For example, half of those in reception facilities in Belgium and the Netherlands are Dublin cases. The costs are high, both to the applicant (and their families) who remain in a prolonged state of limbo and the state, which pays for their continued reception—money that could otherwise be used to begin integration in the host community if protection is warranted or return and reintegration if not. Resolving the existing caseload would generate a “blank slate” as the bloc moves towards pact implementation.
These are the types of proposals that will bring Germany and the European Union to more long-standing and effective change on the ground. Border controls and restrictions to asylum would merely have the effect of shifting the problem—and responsibility for it—to other states or regions and sow the seeds for future uproar in other parts of Europe. Nerves are tangible in many European capitals, and even more so in Brussels, over the 20 months that stretch between now and pact implementation and the thought that a proliferation of crises could usurp resources needed to prepare for this next step.
Such an outcome would dynamite the Pact on Migration and Asylum and the intensive investments all Member States need to make in the years to come to jointly manage migration to the bloc and maintain a protection system respectful of the norms and capacities of European communities. Patience and cooler heads are warranted as preparations for pact implementation are made.
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